Democrats are reportedly panicking over an election scenario prediction by Harvard professor Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration, who said last month that the United States is about to the see the “best economic data” in its history.
The news reportedly stunned Democrats who had been hoping that the economic damage suffered as a result of the pandemic would be enough to sink President Donald Trump’s re-election chances.
“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” Furman told a group of bipartisan leaders from both parties.
“Instead of forecasting a prolonged depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and GDP growth ever,” Politico reported. “Furman’s counterintuitive pitch has caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic.”
One former top Obama official told Politico that this was their “big worry,” and, when asked about the level of concern that this scenario has among top Democrat party officials, the individual said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”
The report indicated that the Biden campaign is well aware of the situation and that they are preparing for the economy to look much different this fall than it does right now.
Furman said that when the economic data from the last couple of months started coming in that he noticed that the data pointed to a type of recovery that is similar to what economics see after major natural disasters.
Larry Kudlow, the head of the White House National Economic Council, told Politico that he “totally agree[s]” with the analysis that Furman presented to political officials last month, adding, “Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”
Other top Trump administration officials, including Kevin Hassett and Peter Navarro, indicated that they agreed with the analysis.
Democrats that Politico interviewed were distressed over the prospect that the economy would be improving before the election. “Trump beats Biden on the economy even right now!” one Democrat told Politico. “This is going to be extremely difficult no matter what.”
Another Democrat told Politico: “Even today when we are at over 20 million unemployed Trump gets high marks on the economy, so I can’t imagine what it looks like when things go in the other direction. I don’t think this is a challenge for the Biden campaign. This is the challenge for the Biden campaign. If they can’t figure this out they should all just go home.”
Political strategist Arthur Schwartz responded to Politico’s report in a tweet, writing: “Dems are spooked because the economy is going to rebound quickly. Their strategy for November is to keep the country closed. Their interests are served by hurting as many Americans as possible.”
Dems are spooked because the economy is going to rebound quickly. Their strategy for November is to keep the country closed. Their interests are served by hurting as many Americans as possible.
The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading https://t.co/z8CzlD3DYD
— Arthur Schwartz (@ArthurSchwartz) May 26, 2020