Will Trump Win? The Latest On Trump’s National And State-By-State Approval Ratings.
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Will Trump Win? The Latest On Trump’s National And State-By-State Approval Ratings.

As the 2020 Democratic Party presidential candidates battle it out for the nomination, politicos must also pay close attention to President Donald Trump’s approval rating across the 50 states. While Trump’s national approval rating has been hovering below 50% for his entire presidency, it was on the upswing for the beginning of the summer before faltering a bit toward the end of July. The president’s approval rating recovered a bit in September before falling again as news of the Ukraine phone call incident rattled national headlines.

Historically, presidents have fared well in re-election campaigns when they maintain approval ratings above 50%. This president, to be sure, has never had such an approval rating at any point throughout his presidency. But President Trump oversees a soaring economy, with record-low unemployment rates, and has a hardened base of core supporters. One must also never forget the sheer power of incumbency: Since FDR, only Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were elected and then subsequently not re-elected four years later.

Yet, fair-minded observers must still ask: If Trump’s overall approval rating number stays below 50%, will Trump be able to defy historical trends for presidential incumbents?

As of October 16, 2019, the RealClearPolitics average for Trump’s national job approval rating sits at 42.7% — or 11.3% underwater.

Overall, national head-to-head polls also do not presently show Trump to be in particularly good electoral shape. Specifically, one of the most accurate pollsters from the 2016 national election, IBD/TIPP, showed last month Trump losing hypothetical head-to-head matchups with each of Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris. The IBD/TIPP poll has correctly predicted the last four presidential elections and was notable in 2016 for being the only national poll to correctly predict Trump’s shocking victory over Hillary Clinton. A Washington Post analysis of the 2016 polling landscape concluded that, overall, IBD/TIPP was the second most accurate pollster of the cycle behind only McClatchy/Marist. While still very early and despite the fact Trump does lead in some hypothetical matchups, the Trump campaign should still be taking very seriously this hypothetical head-to-head matchup polling.

The Daily Wire will also be tracking Trump’s state-by-state approval rating as the general election nears. Here is the latest Trump approval rating information from across all the various swing states.

Battleground State-By-State Trump Approval Rating (latest data via Morning Consult’s September 2019 monthly survey)

ARIZONA:

.2016 presidential result: Trump + 3.57%
.Governor: Republican
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -4%
COLORADO:

.2016 presidential result: Clinton + 4.91%
.Governor: Democrat
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -15%
FLORIDA:

.2016 presidential result: Trump + 1.20%
.Governor: Republican
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
.Current Trump approval rating: -2%
GEORGIA:

.2016 presidential result: Trump + 5.09%
.Governor: Republican
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
.Current Trump approval rating: +1%
IOWA:

.2016 presidential result: Trump + 9.41%
.Governor: Republican
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
.Current Trump approval rating: -14%
MICHIGAN:
.2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.23%
.Governor: Democrat
.U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -10%
MINNESOTA:

.2016 presidential result: Clinton + 1.51%
.U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -11%
NEVADA:

.2016 presidential result: Clinton + 2.42%
.Governor: Democrat
.U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -12%
NEW HAMPSHIRE:

..2016 presidential result: Clinton + 0.37%
..Governor: Democrat
.U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -23%
NORTH CAROLINA:

.2016 presidential result: Trump + 3.66%
.Governor: Democrat
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
.Current Trump approval rating: -3%
OHIO:

.2016 presidential result: Trump + 8.13%
.: Republican
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -5%
PENNSYLVANIA:

.2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.72%
.Governor: Democrat
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -8%
TEXAS:

.2016 presidential result: Trump + 8.99%
.Governor: Republican
.U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
.Current Trump approval rating: +2%
VIRGINIA:

.2016 presidential result: Clinton + 5.32%
.Governor: Democrat
.U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -6%
WISCONSIN:

.presidential result: Trump + 0.77%
.Governor: Democrat
.US. Senate: Republican, Democrat
.Current Trump approval rating: -11%

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